Green Daily

It's been over fifteen years since the Earth Summit was held in Rio de Janiero. In that time, scientists, analysts, pundits and politicians have spent millions of man-hours discussing the agricultural, biological and economic effects of global warming. In spite of all that, however, there seems to have been precious little analysis of the geopolitical security implications of climate change. After all, rising sea levels, decreased access to water, and reduced agricultural output will undoubtedly have a major effect on the stability and might of many countries. Weak governments may fall, strong governments will have to adjust, and people around the globe will find themselves living in a very different world.

The National Intelligence Council recently compiled a report on this very topic. The document, titled The National Security Implications of Global Climate Change Through 2030, is 58 pages long, and has been stamped "confidential," which means that it is a low-level classified document. In spite of this, most analysts assume that the majority of the material contained in the report will be released in a public hearing in Congress that is being held today.

Although a very short report, the release of this document is highly significant, as it represents the first, halting steps of the U.S. intelligence community to understand the impact of a major meteorological process. Even the creation of this document was a controversial move, as many Republicans in Congress continue to deny the existence of global warming and strenuously opposed the creation of the report. In the meantime, the Army, which is not quite so politically motivated, has acknowledged the effects of climate change in its posture statement:

Climate change [...] will compound already difficult conditions in many developing countries. These trends will increase the likelihood of humanitarian crises, the potential for epidemic diseases, and regionally destabilizing population migrations. Desertification is already occurring at nearly 50-70 thousand square miles per year.

Given that many politicians still refuse to acknowledge the existence of climate change, this short statement is almost revolutionary. Who'd have expected such a bold perspective from the U.S. Army?