Green Daily

The House and Senate are just about finished with conference negotiations over the reauthorization of the farm bill (HR 2419). The farm bill is sprawling, $570 billion piece of legislation, containing provisions on everything from Food Stamps and WIC to crop subsidies to biofuels to drought and flood aid.
This year's reauthorization looked all but dead as conferees from the House and Senate fought over protectionist subsidies and tariffs, the competing demands of a tight budget v. the need to increase food aid, conservation measures, and more.

But, after months of intense negotiations between House Agriculture Committee Chair Collin Peterson, Sens. Tom Harkin, Pat Roberts, and Kent Conrad, is the farm bill dead on arrival?Congress has proposed ending farm and crop subsidies for anyone making a non-farm adjusted gross income of $750,000 or more in 2009; in 2011, the upper limit would fall to $500,000.

Those limits are well above President Bush's waterline. He's said he'll veto any bill that includes crop subsidies for anyone making $200,000 a year or more. And at a April 29 press conference, he reiterated his position: "Americans are concerned about rising food prices. Unfortunately, Congress is considering a massive, bloated farm bill that would do little to solve the problem....It's not the time to ask American families who are already paying more in the check-out line to pay more in subsidies for wealthy farmers. Congress can reform our farm programs, and should, by passing a fiscally responsible bill that treats our farmers fairly, and does not impose new burdens on American taxpayers."

So what happens if he vetoes the bill? Well, Congress could go back to the drawing board and try to finish another bill before adjournment. But I sincerely doubt that'd happen, especially since this is an election year and everyone wants to hurry home to spend time fundraising and campaigning before November 11.

I think the likeliest scenario is a long-term extension of the farm bill. At present, the programs authorized by the farm bill are already operating under a short-term extension; the current authorization (S. 2954) expires May 16. After the veto, I foresee an extension until early 2009. This tactic has already been used with other vetoed legislation like the S-CHIP program (extended until March 2009 after two vetoes).